Information Card Thermometer

I’ve started publishing a “sockets guage” on my homepage – a thermometer that represents my best estimate of the percentage of desktops running Information Card bits (and thus capable of using Information Cards).  As of October, 2007, this is just over 10.2%. 

I’ll try to update this estimate monthly, working with others so our estimates are across Windows, Macs and Linux Desktops. 

It will be interesting to watch developments as this percentage moves up to 30% and then to 60% and then to 90%, each with  potentially greater network effects. 

Today we are in the “Sockets and Ecology” phase where we can see:

• CardSpace and DigitalMe and other Card Selector sockets growing towards a tipping point
• software for building relying parties becoming widely available and understood on all platforms and in all languages
• the early versions of the software put out by Microsoft and others being refined and perfected through community feedback and experience
• leading applications raising the competitive bar by adopting the technology

Our view is that as these phenomena accelerate, CardSpace and its sister implementations will be increasingly used across many different contexts and their ability to support minimal disclosure and prevent the use of universal identifiers will become increasingly valued and apparent.